- BOINC: WCG research result announced
09.07.2015 20:59 Uhr
An important research result from World Community Grid’s Computing for Clean Water project was announced in a paper in Nature Nanotechnology.
- climateprediction.net: Update: Heatwave Twice as Likely Due to Climate Change
09.07.2015 14:25 Uhr
A team of international scientists says that it is virtually certain that the heat wave that stretched across much of Europe in early July was more likely to happen now than in the past due to climate change.
Based on the synthesis of two independent peer-reviewed approaches, they conclude that heat waves like this now occur twice as often over a large part of Europe, and four times more often in some of the hottest cities. The results are a part of the developing field of “weather attribution” that uses observational weather and climate data, weather forecasts and climate models.
In recent years, more and more “event attribution analyses” have appeared in the scientific literature (see 2014 BAMS Special Report). This current analysis however, was conducted in real-time, providing results as the heat wave unfolded, but is still based on peer-reviewed scientific methods.
As we reported last week, for this ongoing heat wave in Europe, Climate Central convened an international team of scientists from Oxford University, KNMI, Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, along with regional partners from CNRS (France), DWD (Germany), and MeteoSwiss. They produced a preliminary analysis of the annual maximum of 3-day maximum temperature based on observations up to July 1 and forecasts up to July 5.
It is important to note the difference in results between the first phase of this analysis and the updated version using observations. The increases in likelihood are in good overall agreement for each of the 5 cities. Return time agreement was also good for the stations in the west where the majority of the heat wave had already occurred (i.e., Madrid) or was occurring (i.e., De Bilt). However, the return times changed substantially in the eastern stations where the peak of the heat wave was up to five days into the future (at the time the first analysis was done). The following table below shows how the forecast temperatures for each city verified with observations:
3-day Observed/Forecast Maximum Temperatures and 3-Day Observed Maximum Temperatures
3-day Max obs/fx (July 2) Date 3-day max obs (July 7) Date
De Bilt 31.9°C July 2-4 31.8°C July 1-3 Madrid (diff. station) 39.6°C June 28-30 Mannheim 37.0°C July 2-4 38.0°C July 3-5 Beauvais-Tille n/a n/a 33.2°C July 1-3 Zurich 35.4°C July 4-6 34.0°C July 3-5
Now, that analysis has been redone using observations up to July 6, by which time the heat wave had subsided over most of Europe. The scientists used two independent methods in this analysis, allowing for high confidence in the results. In one method, a statistical analysis of observational records was performed (using the KNMI Climate Explorer) to compare this summer’s heat with summers during the early part of the century, before global warming played a significant role in our climate. This detects trends but cannot attribute the causes.
The second method, conducted by our researchers in Oxford, uses a large computing network (weather@home) to simulate the likelihood of seeing days as hot as those Europe has been experiencing over the past week. At the same time, we also simulated a summer without human-influenced climate change. Comparing those two “worlds,” we found that in the 5 cities analysed, the current conditions are now at least twice as likely due to climate change. The model does not include the urban effects that are accounted for in the methodology based on observations of urban stations.
“The regional weather@home model serves as a nice way to do an independent check on the observational analysis,” said Oxford’s team lead Friederike Otto. “Think of the combined results as a good first step towards answering the climate question.” In this case the Oxford team was a bit limited because the observed sea surface temperatures that drive the model are not yet available. Instead, the summer of 2014 was used as a proxy. The team felt the choice was solid because the influence of the exact sea surface temperatures on summer temperatures in Europe is small compared to the overall effect of global warming.
The results were:
- In De Bilt, the trend analysis of the observational data shows that a 3-day period as hot as experienced over this past week is now more than 4 times more likely to occur than it was around 1900. Using the weather@home model, scientists estimate that climate change has made the observed heat wave almost two times more likely to occur. This means that what would be a 1-in-7 year event in the world without climate change is now a 1-in-4 year event.
- In Madrid, using the weather@home model, we estimate that climate change has made the observed heat wave 5 times more likely to occur. Said differently, what was once a 1-in-100 year event in the world without climate change, is now a 1- in 20-year event.
- In Mannheim, the trend analysis of the observational data shows that the heat wave was a rare event even in the current climate. A 3-day period as hot as experienced over the past week should occur roughly every 30 years now, but, using the weather@home model, we estimate that climate change has made it almost 4 times more likely to occur.
- In Beauvais-Tille (a town 80 km north of Paris, far beyond the suburbs with a good series of observations without urban effects), the trend analysis of the observational data shows that an event like the 2015 heat wave is now expected every three years. Using the weather@home model, we estimate that climate change has made the observed heat wave 25% more likely to occur.
- In Zürich, the trend analysis of the observational data shows that a 3-day period as hot as experienced over the past week is expected nowadays every 15 years or so. This is more than 2.5 times more likely than it was around 1900. Using the weather@home model, we estimate that climate change has made the observed heat wave about 3 times more likely to occur. What would have been a 1-in-40 year event in a world without climate change is now a 1- in- 15 -year event.
Read more on the Climate Central website:
Read Nature’s coverage of this story:
- Collatz Conjecture: New Linux 64-bit CUDA App
08.07.2015 16:30 Uhr
I built a new Linux 64-bit app (version 6.07) which uses CUDA 5.5 and __should__ be statically linked. Hopefully, this will eliminate the glibc errors some have seen. This version also includes the bug fix for CPU validation not matching the GPU results. Once I see valid results for this version, I will build and add the 32-bit CUDA for Linux versions.
- Leiden Classical: Project News 8 july 2015
07.07.2015 22:00 Uhr
During the following months this project will stop supporting FreeBSD and Apple Mac (Intel and PowerPC) binaries and switch to boinc binaries without a screen saver.
- Quake-Catcher Network Sensor Monitoring: QCN Move To CalTech Starting 7/13/2015
07.07.2015 16:51 Uhr
The QCN servers will be packed up at Stanford next Monday (July 13th) and FedEx’d overnight to CalTech. It is hoped that by the end of next week the servers will be online at CalTech and the project will begin running again. We are forwarding our Internet DNS from Stanford to CalTech so that machines connected to “qcn.stanford.edu” will be routed to the new server location automatically (probably qcn.caltech.edu). More information will be sent once things are back up and running – but it’s most likely the project will be down the week of July 13th. You shouldn’t have to do anything – BOINC will automatically connect once it detects the servers are back up.
- climateprediction.net: Preliminary Results for Western US Drought – 607 Models
07.07.2015 15:25 Uhr
We sent out the first models to our volunteers last week and so far we’ve had 607 returned to us – here are some plots using those initial models.
Eventually, we will be running over 20,000 models, so we will add these to the plots as they come in – keep an eye on our results page where we’ll be posting updated plots regularly.
We still have many simulations ready for people to run, so if you are not running our models already, please consider signing up!
The “climatology” results, that look at the possible effect of the “blob” on the drought, are not ready yet so we’re just showing you the “actual” (world with climate change) and “natural” (world that might have been without climate change) experiments.
For an explanation of the 3 different sets of models we’re running, read the Experimental Setup page.
For an explanation of what these plots are showing, read the Return Time Plots page.
We have 3 plots for each of the 3 states we’re looking at, but as an example, here’s temperature for California:
You can see the full plots (so far) for precipitation, snow and temperature on the individual results pages for each State:
- Collatz Conjecture: New Windows CUDA and OpenCL Versions Released
07.07.2015 15:13 Uhr
CUDA version 6.06 and OpenCL version 6.08 were released for Windows today. The CUDA version fixes (I hope) a “device not ready” bug seen by some fast GPUs. While I could not duplicate the error, the code now waits for the events to synchronize which should eliminate the error. The OpenCL version, 6.08, now includes the bug fix where the GPU and CPU results were not always matching. It uses several of the optimizations Sosirus has provided and includes a new “lut_size” configuration option which now defaults to 12 (4096 items). The previous version used a 2^20 sized lookup table which did not fit into the GPU’s cache causing it to be memory rather than processor bound. So, you should see a higher GPU utilization with the new version and it should not be as dependent upon memory speed as the previous versions. Linux and OS X versions with the same fixes will follow soon. As usual, let me know if you have any issues with the new versions.
- theSkyNet POGS – the PS1 Optical Galaxy Survey: Debugging Size Classes Take II
07.07.2015 03:35 Uhr
Just a quick heads up – David Anderson (the guy who wrote most of the BOINC server) from Berkeley is currently having another crack at debugging the size class problem we have.
- SETI@home: Matt Lebofsky on hacking your job, and managing SETI data
06.07.2015 18:29 Uhr
Developer Matt Lebofsky is key to keeping SETI@home software & databases running. Check out our latest video profile of one of the guys who sends you your work units.
- World Community Grid News: Enhancing the potential for nanotechnology to improve access to clean water for millions
06.07.2015 04:23 Uhr
The Computing for Clean Water team has discovered how water can pass through tiny carbon nanotubes much more easily than previously predicted. This groundbreaking understanding of a fundamental physical process holds potential for improving access to clean water for millions through more efficient water filtration and desalination, as well as possible applications in clean energy and medicine. This discovery has been published in Nature Nanotechnology, the world’s most prestigious nanotechnology journal.
- Moo! Wrapper: Unscheduled downtime due to disk problems
05.07.2015 23:29 Uhr
There was an unscheduled downtime on 5th of July from about 13:00 EEST+3 (that’s 10:00 UTC or 3:00 PDT-7) until about 1:30 EEST (22:30 UTC or 15:30 PDT) for a total of 12 hours 30 mins. There might have been problems with services for 2 hours or even longer before the start of downtime.
This was due to disk I/O failures on our main server that meant it had to be brought down for a disk check and temporary repairs. There was no critical data affected as the only file blocks permanently lost due to bad sectors were parts of log files. All other files were repaired successfully.
The affected disk will need to be replaced as it will most likely fail completely soon. This will require additional downtime in coming days.
For now, I’m bringing services back up slowly while the backlog gets processed.
- yoyo@home: Harmonious Tree
05.07.2015 22:00 Uhr
We need to rerun some Harmonious Tree workunits. If you need some points there, now is your chance to catch some.
- NFS@Home: 10,359- factored
04.07.2015 03:35 Uhr
10,359- has been factored by GNFS. It is the product of 101- and 108-digit prime numbers. We still have lots of sieving to do for 6,490+. Thanks for your help!
- BOINC: New governance model
03.07.2015 17:39 Uhr
The BOINC project has transitioned to a community-based governance model. This model is summarized here and described in detail here.
- NFS@Home: 16e status updated
02.07.2015 22:33 Uhr
The long neglected 16e status page has been updated with the
67 factorizations completed so far this year. We will shortly have an 8th completed. Thanks for all of your contributions!
- climateprediction.net: Climate Change Plays Significant Role in European Heat Wave
02.07.2015 13:27 Uhr
The ongoing heat wave dominating a large swath of Europe is being exacerbated by climate change, according to a new analysis by a team of international scientists using both observational data and climate models.
It is widely accepted that climate change will increase the frequency, intensity and duration of heat waves (Meehl and Tebaldi, 2004). In 2004, a paper published in Nature showed that climate change had at least doubled the risk of the record-breaking 2003 European summer heat wave that is believed to have killed more than 70,000 people.
In this case, as part of the world weather attribution project, our partners at Climate Central convened an international team of scientists from Oxford University, KNMI, Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, along with regional partners from CNRS and MeteoSwiss in order to assess the potential role of global warming on a specific heat event – not just a record hot summer. The team defined the specific heat event for selected European cities (De Bilt, Madrid, Mannheim, Paris, and Zurich) using a reference of 3-day maximum temperature.
Using our large weather@home computing network, we simulated the likelihood of seeing days as hot as as those Europe is experiencing now. At the same time, we also simulated a summer where there is no human-influenced climate change. Comparing those two “worlds” we found that in the 5 cities analyzed, average 3-day high temperatures like those currently being observed and forecast have been made at least twice as likely in the world with climate change.
“The results we currently have should be viewed as preliminary,” said Friederike Otto, “because the observed sea surface temperatures are not yet available for this summer, we have simulated the summer of 2014 as a proxy. However, because it is well understood that the influence of the exact sea surface temperatures in Europe is small compared to the overall effect of global warming, these numbers provide a good first step towards answering the climate question.”
Using a combination of observed and forecast data, scientists from the team at KNMI computed the annual maximum of 3-day maximum temperature (observations up to July 1, forecasts up to July 5).
“There is a strong upward trend in 3-day maximum temperatures over the area affected by this heat wave,” said Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, a climate scientist at KNMI. “The trend is clear both in station data and in reanalysis data.” Because the heat wave is ongoing, the analysis partly relies on forecasts for the next few days. A statistical analysis of the observations shows that the probability of observing such a heat wave has more than doubled over the past 37 years in most of the affected region. In the selected cities the increase is even stronger.
The methodology used in these two approaches is drawn from peer reviewed literature. For more details on each approach please refer to the Methodology outlined for a previous analysis on the record heat in Europe in 2014.
- Meehl, G.A. and C. Tebaldi. 2004. More intense, more frequent, and longer lasting heatwaves in the 21st century. Science 305:994-997.
- Stott, P.A., Stone, D.A., and Allen, M.R. (2004) Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003. Nature, 432(7017): 610N614
- climateprediction.net: climateprediction.net at Our Common Future Under Climate Change, Paris
02.07.2015 10:28 Uhr
Most of our science team will be in Paris next week for the international science conference, Our Common Future Under Climate Change.
If you’re going, here are the talks that climateprediction.net researchers are involved in:
Tue 07 July
1118 (a) – Attribution of extreme events: How are high impact extreme events changing and why, UNESCO Fontenoy
- 17:30 Attribution of record high daily temperatures in Australia in 2013, D. Karoly (University of Melbourne, University of Melbourne, VIC, Australia), M. Black (University of Melbourne, University of Melbourne, VIC, Australia), S. Lewis, (Australian National University,Canberra, Australia), A. King (University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia), M. Allen (University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom), F. Otto (University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom), S. Rosier, (NIWA, Wellington, New Zealand)
- 17:40 Human influence on climate in the 2014 Southern England winter floods and their impacts, N. Schaller (University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom), A. Kay (CEH, Wallingford, United Kingdom), R. Lamb (JBA, Skipton, United Kingdom), N. Massey (University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom), G. J. Van Oldenborgh (KMNI, De Bilt, Netherlands), F. Otto (University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom), S. Sparrow (University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom), R. Vautard (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, Saclay, France), P. Yiou (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, Saclay, France), A. Bowery (University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom), S. Crooks (CEH, Wallingford, United Kingdom), C. Huntingford (CEH, Wallingford, United Kingdom), W. Ingram (University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom), R. Jones (Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom), T. Legg (Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom), J. Miller (University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom), D. Wallom (University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom), A. Weisheimer (University of Oxford, Oxford,United Kingdom), P. Stott (UK Meteorological Office, Exeter, United Kingdom), M. Allen (University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom)
Wed 08 July
1114 – Global emissions and their implications for climate targets, UPMC Jussieu – Amphi 24
- 17:30 Short Lived Promise? Short-lived climate pollutants, cumulative carbon and emission metrics, M. Allen (University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom)
1119 (b) – Extreme hydrological events: deciphering changes in hazard and risk at different time-scales, UPMC Jussieu – ROOM 207
- 17:30 Attribution of Hydrological Extreme Events and the Need for National Inventories of Loss and Damage, M. Allen (University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom)
2240 – Perceptions of climate change, UPMC Jussieu – ROOM 101
- 18:30 Panel discussion, N. Pidgeon (Cardiff University, Cardiff, United Kingdom), F. Otto (University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom)
1118 (b) – Attribution of extreme events: How are High impact extreme events changing and why? UPMC Jussieu – ROOM 307
- 18:25 Attributing regional effects of the 2014 Jordanian drought to external climate drivers, R. Zaaboul, (ICBA, Dubai, United Arab Emirates), D. Mitchell (University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom), K. Bergaoui, (ICBA, Dubai, United Arab Emirates), F. Otto (University of Oxford, Oxford,United Kingdom), R. Mcdonnell, (ICBA, Dubai, United Arab Emirates), S. Dadson, (University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom), M. Allen (University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom)
- 18:35 Distinguishing natural and anthropogenic influences on extreme fire danger in Australia, M. Black (University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia), D. Karoly (University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia), T. Lane, (University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia), L. Alexander (University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia)
- NFS@Home: BOINC code upgrade
02.07.2015 00:12 Uhr
I’m working on transitioning the project’s per-app credits from my custom code to the official BOINC code. Various credit- and badge-related displays may be a bit broken for a bit. Sorry for any inconvenience!
Edit: I think everything should be working now. Please let me know if you find anything broken by leaving a comment on this post. Thanks!
- SAT@home: New peak of performance!
01.07.2015 09:24 Uhr
New peak of the project performance (10,16 TFLOPs) was obtained! Thanks to all our crunchers! Special thanks to the mega-crunchers Alejandro V. Mena, Endurance, Grandpa, damotbe and [SG-FC] hl. Also thanks to the top-5 teams (by RAC during the period where the peak was obtained): Crystal Dream, L’Alliance Francophone, Russia Team, MENA_COMP_DIE_FI_UNAM, [H]ard|OCP.
Был получен новый рекорд производительности (10,16 TFLOPs)! Спасибо всем нашим кранчерам! Персональное спасибо мега-кранчерам Alejandro V. Mena, Endurance, Grandpa, damotbe и [SG-FC] hl. Также спасибо топ-5 команд (по RAC в течение получения рекорда): Crystal Dream, L’Alliance Francophone, Russia Team, MENA_COMP_DIE_FI_UNAM, [H]ard|OCP.
- SAT@home: 5 new solutions
01.07.2015 09:10 Uhr
5 new solutions were found by hawker from Russia, Endurance from Crystal Dream, fzs600 from L’Alliance Francophone, jan, Grandpa from [H]ard|OCP, Ungelovende from Team Norway, Andrey Fesenko (anfes) from Russia, [AF>EDLS]zOU from L’Alliance Francophone
5 новых решений нашли: hawker из Russia, Endurance из Crystal Dream, fzs600 из L’Alliance Francophone, jan, Grandpa из [H]ard|OCP, Ungelovende из Team Norway, Andrey Fesenko (anfes) из Russia, [AF>EDLS]zOU из L’Alliance Francophone
- climateprediction.net: New Experiment Launched: weather@home 2015: Western US Drought
30.06.2015 08:54 Uhr
We’ve just launched a new experiment looking at the causes of the ongoing drought in California, Oregon and Washington.
Has climate change made the drought more likely? Or is it the “blob”, the giant patch of unusually warm water off the West Coast in the northeast Pacific Ocean?
We’ve just put out over 20,000 models to study this phenomenon – you can read more about the drought in the Western US and how our experiment will help answer these questions on the weather@home pages on our website:
We’ll be posting results up on our website as soon as we get the first models back, probably in about a week from now, so watch this space!
The drought in the Western US over the period covered by this experiment,
from US Drought Monitor.
- CAS@home: LHC@home Test4Theory passed 2 Trillion events
29.06.2015 08:31 Uhr
The Test4Theory application of LHC@home just announced that they have reached the total of 2 Trillion events simulated since 2011 by volunteers for the CERN PH-TH project MCPlots.
The original news can be found here
- GPUGRID: Update to QC CPU application
27.06.2015 12:30 Uhr
Hello Crunchers! Things have been a bit quiet on the GPUGRID development front for a while as we have concentrated on our scientific projects. I’m now doing a spot of work on our new CPU quantum chemistry application, with a view to significantly increasing its use in the near future. Expect a flurry of updates (the first, version 101, is live now) – these are aimed at improving the platform support and performance. Please note that this app is Linux only. It’s unlikely that we’ll be able to get a Windows version of this software built. Matt
- FiND@Home: server_status updated
26.06.2015 12:22 Uhr
Due to an XSS issues in server_status.php, I updated it.
PyAssimilator.py (vina) works well, do not mind the red warning.
I’m a little bit stupid, I forgot to backup my code for the progress bar… I’ll do it again but maybe not today.
- MilkyWay@Home: Nbody Status Update
25.06.2015 16:28 Uhr
Just a quick update on the status of Nbody. I discovered that the hanging that people were experiencing were due to the Newton Raphson root finding algorithm which would get stuck in an infinite loop. After looking for why this occurred for sometime, I decided to switch to a bisection method which is insured not to get stuck.
The slow nature of the initialization of the plummer was found to be an error in the calculation of one of the limits of integration in a crucial integral that was being calculated. What a time it was finding that! With that limit fixed, it seems that the initialization takes a few seconds!
I am currently unit testing the code and hopefully should get a lovely new version in a couple of weeks.
- MilkyWay@Home: Updates
25.06.2015 15:59 Uhr
Jake Weiss and I will be making fairly regular updates on the status of the project under the Application Code Discussion part of the forum.
- SETI@home: Questions and Answers
23.06.2015 21:51 Uhr
We put out a call on Twitter and Facebook for questions for our scientists and engineers. We picked seven of the submissions and had our team give short answers.
Follow us on Twitter: http://twitter.com/setiathome
- WEP-M+2 Project: 12-digit factor of P2203 has now been found by the project…
19.06.2015 10:52 Uhr
- GPUGRID: Urgent PhD position at GPUGRID in Barcelona (please forward)
18.06.2015 08:07 Uhr
hi guys, do you know anybody interested in doing a PhD with us. We have a fellowship but we need to find a candidate within a week. Please forward it on if you know somebody interested http://multiscalelab.org/Jobs/PhD_intrinsically_disordered_proteins_barcelona Best, gdf
- Collatz Conjecture: Planned Outage 6/18/2015 @ 8:00am CDT
18.06.2015 00:00 Uhr
Tomorrow morning at 8:00am central daylight savings time, the power will be out. It is expected to be back on around 12:00pm.